Brazilian democracy in the balance as voters consider giving the Bolsonaros another chance

Brazilian striker Richarlison may be a forgotten man at Tottenham Hotspur, cut from the Premier League club’s squad and forced to train with the Under-21s. But back in Brazil he has emerged as a surprise player in the country’s acrimonious presidential election campaign.

This culminates on Sunday when incumbent leftist president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva faces far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a run-off that polls show heading for a photo finish. The race has been dominated by accusations and counteraccusations of corruption, which this week has included Richarlison’s dispute over a mansion on an island facing a glamorous stretch of Rio de Janeiro’s coast.

His antagonist is the lawyer Willer Tomaz, a close and very wealthy friend of Flávio. The footballer claims Tomaz used undue influence with Rio’s courts to seize the property. He says this followed his refusal of an offer from Flávio to buy the occupation rights to the property, which sits on federal land. “I didn’t want to sell him the island,” Richarlison said in a video posted on social media. “Since I didn’t, these guys just snatched it through the courts.” Flávio and Tomaz deny any wrongdoing, the latter saying he acquired the rights legitimately.

The player’s cause has now been taken up by Lula’s supporters. “Give back Richarlison’s island” has trended on social media, with the president himself posting a video in support. The island dispute helps highlight a key element of Lula’s strategy during the campaign’s final weeks as he seeks to overturn the 2.22 million vote deficit from his loss in the first round on October 4th. Since then Lula has sought to focus the minds of undecided voters on Flávio’s plans to make swingeing cuts to public spending, while simultaneously emphasising the multiple allegations of corruption the senator faces.

Sharper scrutiny of the activities of Tomaz is central to this effort. A lawyer based in the capital Brasília, he is no stranger to controversy. His most recent brush with the law started with an investigation into his alleged involvement in a scheme to defraud Brazil’s social security system. This led police to probe his online gambling activity that in 2025 saw him deposit 258 million reais (€45.5 million) with an online betting site. Police are now investigating indications Tomaz controlled the site and used it to launder money.

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Tomaz says he has a gambling addiction and that the funds “originate from lawful sources” and are compatible with his income. Flávio has defended Tomaz, saying they have a “legitimate friendship”, though he denies that the two are business partners. But as part of their investigations, federal police have found evidence they say indicates Flávio was the “master user” of a bank account belonging to a company owned by the lawyer. Flávio denies the accusation and Tomaz says the account was opened in error.

In 1989, during Brazil’s first presidential election following its 21-year military dictatorship, Paulo César Farias was the unknown treasurer-cum-bagman of Fernando Collor, the right-wing candidate who defeated Lula in the first of his seven presidential runs.

During the contest only a small circle in Brazil’s elite knew the pair were operating a huge kickback scheme that netted them tens of millions of dollars, typically in cash. The revelations about their activities led to Collor’s impeachment, Farias’s eventual murder – still unsolved to this day – and the bitter realisation for many Brazilians that democracy would not necessarily lead to the cleaning-up of public life.

Now, 37 years later, Flávio goes into Sunday neck and neck with Lula despite the almost daily airing of serious allegations into his affairs, the voluminous reporting often based on police investigations.

To deepen the irony for many Brazilians, the Bolsonaros first rose to national prominence on the back of anger at revelations of systematic corruption by the traditional political elite, which after more than a decade in power included Lula’s Workers’ Party.

When Flávio’s father, Jair Bolsonaro, won the presidency in 2018, he promised to end corruption. But once installed, his government was plagued by scandals and cover-ups. A survey this week by the news publication Folha de S Paulo revealed 18 former cabinet members and aides of Jair Bolsonaro were serving sentences, facing trial in court or being investigated by the police for various crimes.

In contrast just six similarly ranked members of Lula’s administration are under investigation. When he lost his re-election bid in 2022 to Lula, Jair Bolsonaro attempted a coup, for which he is serving a 27-year sentence.

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Flávio has vowed to free his father if elected. To this day the Bolsonaros hammer away at allegations against Lula’s family, especially those against Lula’s eldest son over his relationship with a lobbyist under investigation who had extensive access to his father’s administration. All the while Flávio denies any wrongdoing by his own family despite the evidence against them.

If Flávio wins on Sunday, he will be an embattled president-elect. As well as the investigation into his relationship with Tomaz, there is another involving money laundering connected to Daniel Vorcaro, the jailed owner of Banco Master, accused of Brazil’s biggest ever financial fraud. In a bad-tempered TV debate last Sunday Lula referred to his opponent as “a Rio scoundrel, who pretends he isn’t pretending and lies shamelessly” and challenged him to open up their bank and phone records and those of their families to public scrutiny.

At first, Flávio demurred, trying to impose conditions but with a final TV debate between the two men due 48 hours before polling, he indicated he would. But so close to the polls opening it is unclear whether the president’s tactic will do anything to change votes even in the unlikely event something is found lurking in the records.

Instead, Lula’s best chance of being the first-ever candidate to come from behind to win a run-off lies in mobilising enough of the 49 million voters who did not vote for either man in the first round to rally behind his candidacy at the last minute. Sunday is too close to call according to polls that have narrowed to within the margin of error. The widely watched poll by Datafolha released on Thursday last shows Lula having caught up with Flávio, each candidate now on 50 per cent once undecideds and spoiled votes are excluded.

But since 2018, opinion polls have tended to underestimate the Bolsonaro vote. As the campaign closes Lula’s disapproval rating has fallen slightly but remains dangerously high for an incumbent running for re-election. His campaign has offered little of the optimistic vision for the future like when he first won power back in 2002.

Instead he has relentlessly targeted his opponent’s policies and character. Yet tens of millions of Brazilians look ready to take another chance on the Bolsonaros. This is despite their promise in 2018 to end graft being followed by a scandal-plagued four years in power that culminated in an effort to overthrow an election result after voters rejected Jair Bolsonaro for Lula in 2022.

Whether Lula has done enough to convince a majority not to return to power a family whose patriarch is serving 27 years for his coup attempt is about to be decided, and, possibly with it the future of Brazilian democracy.