Extremism is all the rage. But there’s a moment that will truly test Shoebridge and Hanson
You don’t need to peer too far back into the past to be reminded how public sentiment can rearrange itself once an election is called.
Things did not go as planned for the government’s doomsayers. While the Greens’ national primary vote remained at 12.2 per cent, they lost three lower house MPs, including Bandt in Melbourne and Chandler-Mather in Griffith. In all three electorates, the Green vote fell, Labor’s rose and a greater number of Liberal voters gave their preferences to the ALP. The Greens now have just one seat, Ryan, which they took in 2022 not from the Labor Party but from the Coalition. Meanwhile, Labor smashed the Coalition and won its biggest lower house majority since 1943.
Once voters had to make a formal and binding choice on who could be trusted to look after them and the country, a substantial majority went with the government. That is the difference an election can make. Things do move quickly these days, but for the next election not to have a moderating effect on voters’ choices apparent anger would be a monumental change.
Shoebridge’s elevation means a return to the Bandt model. Bob Brown, who served as leader from 2005 to 2012, also wanted the Greens to replace Labor. What sets Shoebridge apart is that he has declared it boldly as his mission from the get-go. By implication his success as leader will be judged by how he delivers on it.
In the coming months, his every public utterance and action, driven by his aggressive approach towards Albanese and Labor’s agenda will get vast media attention. It could well lead to a bump in the polls as well as boosting a reported lift in party membership. The most recent mainstream polls had the party attracting between 11 and 13 per cent.
But there are two sides to the Shoebridge coin. As leader he will retain his role as defence and foreign affairs spokesman, which will make more prominent the party’s positions on national security, including its opposition to Australia providing military support to Ukraine. The party is very much at the pacifist, peacenik end of the left. Shoebridge’s stated policy of giving Ukraine military support only if it was backed by the United Nations Security Council is, given the obvious fact that Russia as a permanent member would veto it, a ridiculous policy.
