How One Nation’s negative migration plans would drive up debt by $275b
A 10-year analysis of lower migration scenarios using Parliamentary Budget Office tools exposes the economic and budget consequences of blunt measures to bring fewer people to the country.
Under the government’s policies, the budget is expected to show cumulative deficits of $108 billion over the next decade, returning to the black in 2034-35. But One Nation would run cumulative deficits of $391 billion, and the budget would not return to surplus over the next 10 years.
The larger deficits mean more gross debt, which is currently $995 billion. By the middle of next decade, current government policy would take debt to almost $1.4 trillion. But with deep cuts in net overseas migration, One Nation would have debt at $1.67 trillion.
The Coalition’s numbers, under today’s migration settings, would lead to debt at $1.54 trillion. There would also be a 430,000 drop in the number of working people, and run-up deficits worth $262 billion. It would get back to surplus in 2036-37.
The opposition’s own analysis deviates significantly from these estimates because the Coalition plans on changing the mix of migrants, whereas the PBO budget tool assumes the make-up of the migration program remains the same as today but in smaller numbers.
